Are changes in reported social-emotional skills just noise? The predictive power of longitudinal differences in self-reports.

This 2024 study by Kanopka et al. examines whether changes in self-reported social-emotional skills over time reflect meaningful growth or mere measurement noise. Using longitudinal data from California’s CORE Districts, the authors analyze students’ responses across four SEL constructs—growth mindset, self-efficacy, self-management, and social awareness—to assess the reliability and predictive validity of changes in reported skills. The findings show that while short-term fluctuations in SEL scores may include some noise, longer-term changes are both systematic and predictive of future academic achievement, attendance, and behavioral outcomes. The study underscores that well-designed SEL surveys can capture meaningful developmental trends and serve as valuable tools for understanding student progress and school effectiveness.